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04 Oct 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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53.4%
Karpaty
27.5%
Draw
19.1%
Inhulets

Expected Goals (xG)

1.45

Karpaty

vs
0.75

Inhulets

Markets

BTTS40.9%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.565.0%
Over 2.537.9%
Over 3.518.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.7%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
11.6%
0-0
11.4%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.5%
3-1
4.2%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
3.1%
4-0
2.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).