Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.5%
Oviedo
24.2%
Draw
16.3%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Oviedo
vs
0.72
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS41.0%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.541.7%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.7%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
11.0%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.3%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).