Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.3%
Luton
28.8%
Draw
42.8%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Luton
vs
1.39
Derby
Markets
BTTS51.0%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.572.0%
Over 2.545.2%
Over 3.523.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
9.4%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.1%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.0%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
4.1%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).