Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.6%
Napoli
27.2%
Draw
35.2%
Atalanta
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Napoli
vs
1.18
Atalanta
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.543.1%
Over 3.522.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.3%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.3%
1-3
3.0%
3-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).