Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.5%
Bolton
28.2%
Draw
40.3%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.93
Bolton
vs
1.10
Derby
Markets
BTTS39.2%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.558.9%
Over 2.533.0%
Over 3.514.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.6%
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.3%
0-0
12.1%
0-2
7.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
3.4%
0-3
2.9%
1-3
2.7%
3-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).