Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.5%
Liverpool
27.4%
Draw
29.0%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Liverpool
vs
1.30
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS60.1%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.580.6%
Over 2.556.1%
Over 3.533.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
7.1%
0-0
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.4%
3-1
5.0%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
3.8%
3-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).