Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →11.0%
Las Palmas
19.3%
Draw
69.7%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
0.72
Las Palmas
vs
2.14
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS45.7%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.554.5%
Over 3.532.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.1%
0-1
11.9%
1-2
9.5%
0-3
9.3%
1-1
9.2%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.0%
0-4
5.0%
1-0
3.8%
1-4
3.6%
2-2
3.4%
2-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).