Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.9%
Burgos
23.9%
Draw
13.2%
Cartagena
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Burgos
vs
0.59
Cartagena
Markets
BTTS35.7%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.564.9%
Over 2.538.2%
Over 3.518.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.8%
2-0
14.4%
0-0
10.8%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
8.5%
3-0
7.8%
0-1
6.5%
3-1
4.6%
4-0
3.2%
1-2
3.1%
2-2
2.5%
0-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).