Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.3%
Numancia
27.1%
Draw
38.5%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Numancia
vs
1.26
Malaga
Markets
BTTS49.4%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.544.0%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
10.4%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
3.4%
3-1
3.0%
0-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).