Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.1%
Atalanta
21.9%
Draw
17.0%
Fiorentina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Atalanta
vs
0.85
Fiorentina
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.574.9%
Over 2.550.6%
Over 3.528.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.6%
2-0
11.5%
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.1%
0-0
6.6%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
5.9%
1-2
4.5%
2-2
4.2%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).