Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.5%
Guimaraes
24.6%
Draw
15.9%
Belenenses
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Guimaraes
vs
0.64
Belenenses
Markets
BTTS36.7%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.563.5%
Over 2.537.1%
Over 3.517.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.9%
2-0
13.4%
0-0
10.8%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.8%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
4.4%
1-2
3.6%
2-2
2.8%
4-0
2.6%
0-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).