Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.2%
Aves
24.2%
Draw
18.6%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Aves
vs
0.76
Chaves
Markets
BTTS41.9%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.567.4%
Over 2.541.5%
Over 3.520.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.7%
2-0
12.0%
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
7.9%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
4.8%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.5%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).