Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.9%
Nacional
21.8%
Draw
11.3%
AVS
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97
Nacional
vs
0.69
AVS
Markets
BTTS43.4%
Over 0.592.2%
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.549.5%
Over 3.527.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.6%
1-0
13.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
8.9%
0-0
7.8%
3-1
6.1%
4-0
4.4%
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
4-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).