Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.8%
Manchester City
27.7%
Draw
31.4%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56
Manchester City
vs
1.35
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS60.2%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.580.4%
Over 2.555.8%
Over 3.533.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.9%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
5.7%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.7%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).