Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.1%
Luton
20.4%
Draw
60.5%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Luton
vs
2.48
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS69.5%
Over 0.596.9%
Over 1.590.7%
Over 2.574.0%
Over 3.553.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.0%
1-1
8.2%
1-3
7.4%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
0-3
5.4%
2-3
5.1%
2-1
5.0%
1-4
4.6%
0-1
4.2%
0-4
3.3%
2-4
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).