Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.1%
Spal
23.8%
Draw
61.1%
Milan
Expected Goals (xG)
0.67
Spal
vs
1.64
Milan
Markets
BTTS39.1%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.566.9%
Over 2.540.6%
Over 3.520.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.5%
0-2
13.4%
1-1
10.7%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
8.9%
0-3
7.3%
1-0
6.8%
1-3
4.9%
2-1
3.6%
0-4
3.0%
2-2
3.0%
2-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).