Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.2%
Ponferradina
27.0%
Draw
16.7%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42
Ponferradina
vs
0.63
Lugo
Markets
BTTS35.5%
Over 0.587.3%
Over 1.560.7%
Over 2.533.7%
Over 3.515.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.3%
2-0
12.9%
0-0
12.7%
1-1
11.4%
0-1
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
3.9%
1-2
3.7%
2-2
2.6%
0-2
2.6%
4-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).