Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.7%
Casa Pia
29.3%
Draw
30.0%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Casa Pia
vs
0.90
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS39.3%
Over 0.587.2%
Over 1.559.2%
Over 2.532.7%
Over 3.514.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.4%
1-1
12.8%
0-0
12.8%
0-1
12.7%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.4%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
3.4%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
2.7%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).