Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.7%
Spal
27.0%
Draw
40.3%
Fiorentina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.13
Spal
vs
1.29
Fiorentina
Markets
BTTS48.9%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.569.4%
Over 2.543.6%
Over 3.522.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.7%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.6%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).