Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.6%
Milan
27.3%
Draw
27.1%
Napoli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Milan
vs
0.96
Napoli
Markets
BTTS45.3%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.566.6%
Over 2.540.3%
Over 3.520.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.7%
1-1
12.7%
0-1
9.9%
0-0
9.8%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-0
4.0%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).