Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →93.0%
Sp Lisbon
5.4%
Draw
1.7%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
3.54
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.36
Chaves
Markets
BTTS29.4%
Over 0.598.1%
Over 1.590.0%
Over 2.574.7%
Over 3.554.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
14.9%
4-0
13.2%
2-0
12.7%
5-0
9.4%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
5.4%
4-1
4.8%
2-1
4.6%
5-1
3.4%
1-1
2.5%
0-0
1.9%
3-2
1.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).