Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.2%
Villarreal
22.6%
Draw
15.2%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Villarreal
vs
0.80
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS47.0%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.574.9%
Over 2.549.9%
Over 3.527.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.6%
2-0
12.1%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
7.5%
0-0
7.3%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.9%
4-0
3.5%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).