Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.9%
Arouca
24.2%
Draw
37.0%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Arouca
vs
1.39
Setubal
Markets
BTTS56.5%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.553.4%
Over 3.531.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
1-0
9.1%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
0-2
5.8%
0-0
5.5%
3-1
4.0%
1-3
3.8%
3-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).