Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.8%
Castellon
26.4%
Draw
25.8%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Castellon
vs
0.98
Burgos
Markets
BTTS47.5%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.569.4%
Over 2.543.5%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-0
8.8%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-0
4.4%
3-1
4.3%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).