Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.5%
Luton
22.1%
Draw
57.3%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Luton
vs
2.26
Brighton
Markets
BTTS66.8%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.588.4%
Over 2.569.3%
Over 3.548.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
7.1%
2-2
6.2%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
5.3%
0-1
5.2%
2-3
4.7%
1-4
4.0%
0-0
4.0%
0-4
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).