Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.5%
Swindon
22.3%
Draw
44.2%
Mansfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Swindon
vs
1.73
Mansfield
Markets
BTTS63.0%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.562.1%
Over 3.539.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.9%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
7.5%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
6.4%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
5.1%
2-0
4.4%
2-3
3.8%
3-1
3.8%
0-0
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).