Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.6%
Derby
25.6%
Draw
23.8%
Charlton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37
Derby
vs
0.83
Charlton
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.563.6%
Over 2.537.9%
Over 3.518.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.2%
1-1
11.5%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
10.2%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.7%
3-1
4.0%
0-2
3.8%
2-2
3.6%
3-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).