Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.7%
Derby
18.7%
Draw
8.6%
Sheffield Weds
Expected Goals (xG)
2.19
Derby
vs
0.62
Sheffield Weds
Markets
BTTS41.8%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.577.7%
Over 2.553.3%
Over 3.531.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.4%
1-0
12.5%
3-0
10.5%
2-1
9.0%
1-1
8.8%
0-0
6.6%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
3.2%
2-2
2.8%
1-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).