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09 Mar 2024 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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15.9%
Cardiff
23.0%
Draw
61.1%
Ipswich

Expected Goals (xG)

0.90

Cardiff

vs
1.95

Ipswich

Markets

BTTS51.9%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.578.7%
Over 2.554.4%
Over 3.532.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.0%
0-2
11.0%
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.1%
0-0
6.6%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
4.6%
2-2
4.5%
1-0
4.3%
0-4
3.5%
1-4
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).