Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.8%
Burgos
27.5%
Draw
35.7%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Burgos
vs
1.18
Santander
Markets
BTTS48.3%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.568.6%
Over 2.542.5%
Over 3.521.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.3%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
3.0%
3-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).