Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.5%
Birmingham
26.9%
Draw
20.6%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Birmingham
vs
0.93
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS49.4%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
5.5%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).