Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.1%
Spezia
31.3%
Draw
25.5%
Sampdoria
Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
Spezia
vs
0.91
Sampdoria
Markets
BTTS44.2%
Over 0.587.4%
Over 1.565.2%
Over 2.537.1%
Over 3.517.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
1-0
13.0%
0-0
12.6%
0-1
9.1%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.7%
3-0
3.8%
2-2
3.8%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).