Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.6%
Tondela
28.4%
Draw
33.0%
Rio Ave
Expected Goals (xG)
1.13
Tondela
vs
1.02
Rio Ave
Markets
BTTS42.5%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.562.5%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.8%
1-1
12.8%
0-1
12.5%
0-0
11.2%
2-1
7.6%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
3.8%
3-1
2.8%
3-0
2.8%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).