Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.7%
Lugo
36.4%
Draw
32.9%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.73
Lugo
vs
0.77
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS27.8%
Over 0.577.9%
Over 1.544.3%
Over 2.519.2%
Over 3.56.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
22.1%
0-1
17.2%
1-0
16.4%
1-1
12.4%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.0%
1-2
4.8%
2-1
4.6%
2-2
1.8%
0-3
1.7%
3-0
1.5%
1-3
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).