Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.5%
Lugo
30.1%
Draw
48.3%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
0.70
Lugo
vs
1.20
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS34.9%
Over 0.585.1%
Over 1.556.4%
Over 2.529.6%
Over 3.512.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
18.1%
0-0
14.9%
1-1
12.4%
0-2
10.8%
1-0
10.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
4.4%
0-3
4.3%
2-0
3.6%
1-3
3.0%
2-2
2.6%
0-4
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).