Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.1%
Perugia
27.6%
Draw
23.4%
Crotone
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Perugia
vs
1.02
Crotone
Markets
BTTS52.0%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.548.1%
Over 3.526.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.0%
3-0
4.9%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).