Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.4%
Maritimo
27.4%
Draw
24.2%
Belenenses
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Maritimo
vs
0.83
Belenenses
Markets
BTTS40.6%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.562.5%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.0%
1-1
12.2%
0-0
11.2%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.1%
3-1
3.7%
2-2
3.5%
3-2
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).