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18 Apr 2023 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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39.5%
Swindon
25.0%
Draw
35.5%
Bradford

Expected Goals (xG)

1.37

Swindon

vs
1.29

Bradford

Markets

BTTS53.4%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.549.6%
Over 3.527.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.2%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
3.9%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).