Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.7%
Estoril
21.7%
Draw
21.6%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
2.18
Estoril
vs
1.30
Nacional
Markets
BTTS65.3%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.586.9%
Over 2.567.7%
Over 3.546.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.4%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.3%
3-2
4.5%
4-1
3.8%
0-0
3.7%
0-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).