Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.1%
Alessandria
30.4%
Draw
33.5%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Alessandria
vs
1.16
Spal
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.569.9%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.6%
1-0
10.0%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.2%
1-3
2.9%
3-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).