Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.7%
Swindon
21.3%
Draw
49.0%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Swindon
vs
1.95
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS66.1%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.585.5%
Over 2.566.8%
Over 3.545.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.1%
1-1
9.0%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
5.9%
1-0
5.1%
2-3
4.4%
0-3
4.0%
2-0
3.5%
3-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).