Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.9%
Chaves
26.6%
Draw
46.4%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
0.95
Chaves
vs
1.34
Nacional
Markets
BTTS44.6%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.566.0%
Over 2.540.0%
Over 3.519.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.2%
1-1
12.3%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.6%
0-2
9.1%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
6.1%
2-0
4.5%
0-3
4.1%
2-2
4.1%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).