Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.7%
Celta
26.0%
Draw
15.3%
Alaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Celta
vs
0.65
Alaves
Markets
BTTS37.8%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.564.5%
Over 2.537.5%
Over 3.517.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.0%
2-0
13.3%
1-1
11.4%
0-0
11.4%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
4.4%
1-2
3.6%
2-2
2.8%
4-0
2.6%
0-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).