Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.1%
Melksham Town
19.5%
Draw
31.3%
Bury
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Melksham Town
vs
1.81
Bury
Markets
BTTS75.0%
Over 0.598.6%
Over 1.591.3%
Over 2.577.6%
Over 3.558.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
7.9%
2-2
7.1%
1-1
6.7%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
6.0%
3-2
5.4%
2-0
4.3%
2-3
4.3%
1-0
4.0%
1-3
3.8%
4-1
3.4%
3-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).