Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.4%
Newport County
25.3%
Draw
34.3%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Newport County
vs
1.23
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS52.2%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.572.6%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
1-0
10.7%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
0-0
6.9%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
3.9%
1-3
3.2%
3-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).