Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.2%
Lecce
25.1%
Draw
14.6%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.76
Lecce
vs
0.76
Spal
Markets
BTTS45.0%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.524.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.1%
2-0
12.5%
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.0%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
3.6%
4-0
3.2%
4-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).