Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →14.8%
Lugo
21.4%
Draw
63.9%
Almeria
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Lugo
vs
1.89
Almeria
Markets
BTTS45.6%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.549.7%
Over 3.527.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.3%
0-2
12.5%
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
7.8%
0-0
6.9%
1-3
6.1%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
3.9%
2-2
3.7%
0-4
3.7%
1-4
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).