Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.9%
Arouca
21.4%
Draw
21.8%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.90
Arouca
vs
1.08
Chaves
Markets
BTTS55.6%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.557.1%
Over 3.534.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
10.1%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
6.3%
0-1
6.0%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-2
5.3%
0-0
4.6%
3-2
3.4%
0-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).