Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.7%
Almeria
21.4%
Draw
20.9%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.98
Almeria
vs
1.11
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS57.6%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.559.6%
Over 3.537.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.9%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
5.9%
1-2
5.5%
2-2
5.5%
0-1
5.1%
0-0
4.5%
3-2
3.6%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).