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AHT: 21CSV

19 Mar 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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35.5%
Stevenage
32.2%
Draw
32.3%
Northampton

Expected Goals (xG)

0.91

Stevenage

vs
0.85

Northampton

Markets

BTTS33.6%
Over 0.583.3%
Over 1.551.9%
Over 2.525.8%
Over 3.510.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-0
16.7%
1-0
16.2%
0-1
15.2%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.2%
2-1
6.0%
1-2
5.7%
2-2
2.6%
3-0
2.1%
3-1
1.8%
0-3
1.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).